> cat logical-arbitrage.md
Logical arbitrage inside one venue
Hypothesis
Related markets on one prediction-market venue (Polymarket) must price consistently. Where they do not, the gap is free money.
Test
860 events scanned for related markets whose prices disagreed. Eight raw opportunities. Three were never arbitrage: nested thresholds, cumulative deadlines, and outcome sets that did not cover every case. Five were real. None could fill a 500-dollar order.
Cause of death
Capacity. The gaps exist and they are real, and they are too small to trade at the size tested. The verdict rests on an exact count over all 860 events scanned, not on an interval, which the audit's plan allows for a count. The audit's check of this cause: consistent with its own record.
gateNO EDGE
causecapacity
evidenceresult table, no interval
auditone of 53 ideas · plan frozen 2026-10-17 · luck-corrected
the number0 of 5 could fill a 500-dollar order
the audit's checker compared 270,232 values across all 53 ideas (run 3, 2026-10-25); this number is not one of them: it is a count from the case's own result table
Lesson
Count what would have filled before you count a gap as profit.
> cat fifteen-minute-reversal.md
This site is not advice and gives no signals or trade ideas.
fig. 1 The 860 events scanned, one dot each; the eight raw opportunities; the five real ones; none that could fill a 500-dollar order.
| Step | Count |
|---|---|
| Events scanned | 860 |
| Raw opportunities | 8 |
| Never arbitrage | 3 |
| Real | 5 |
| Could fill a 500-dollar order | 0 |