> cat fifteen-minute-reversal.md

The fifteen-minute reversal

Hypothesis

On Polymarket's fifteen-minute bitcoin markets, the next window reverses the last one more often than not. Bet the reversal.

Test

Reversal rate 50.7%, 95% interval 48.4% to 53.0%, against a coin flip at 50%. The interval contains the coin flip. Polymarket's international venue, where these markets trade, is not open to US traders.

Cause of death

Blocked. Nothing in the data separates this from chance, and the venue could not be traded from here in any case. This is a record, not an invitation to trade it. The audit's check of this cause: consistent with its own record.

gateNOT ESTABLISHED

causeblocked

evidenceresult table with interval

auditone of 53 ideas · plan frozen 2026-10-17 · luck-corrected

the number50.7%, interval 48.4% to 53.0%+ checker 50.7%, match

checked by the audit: its checker compared this cell (run 3, 2026-10-25)

Lesson

A coin flip with a story is still a coin flip.

> cat novig-favorites.md

This site is not advice and gives no signals or trade ideas.

Reversal rate with its 95% interval, against a coin flip at 50%Reversal rate 50.7 percent, interval 48.4 to 53.0 percent. The coin flip at 50 percent lies inside the interval.46%48%50%52%54%coin flip, 50%more often than not →reversal rate50.7% (48.4% to 53.0%)the interval contains the coin flipnot open to US tradersReversal rate with its 95% interval, against a coin flip at 50%Reversal rate 50.7 percent, interval 48.4 to 53.0 percent. The coin flip at 50 percent lies inside the interval.46%48%50%52%54%coin flipmore often than not →reversal rate 50.7%48.4% to 53.0%

fig. 1 Reversal rate with its 95% interval, against a coin flip at 50%.

Reversal rate with its 95% interval, against a coin flip at 50%
MeasureValueInterval
Reversal rate50.7%48.4% to 53.0%
Coin flip50%