> cat ledger.md

Ledger

Every idea the audit scored. For each of the 44 closed ones: the kind of market, the recorded verdict and the cause.

  1. 01short-term commodity pricesNO EDGEpriced rightaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  2. 02sports favoritesUNDECIDABLEsupply
  3. 03esports market makingNO EDGEqueue
  4. 04short-term commodity pricesNOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  5. 05short-term stock index pricesNO EDGEsupply
  6. 06speech and media eventsNO EDGEqueue
  7. 07fifteen-minute bitcoin, PolymarketNOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  8. 08related markets, PolymarketNO EDGEcapacity
  9. 09heavy favorites, NovigNOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  10. 10sports favoritesUNDECIDABLEsupply
  11. 11market making, commoditiesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  12. 12market making, commoditiesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  13. 13market making, commoditiesNO EDGEqueue
  14. 14speech and media eventsNOT ESTABLISHEDqueue
  15. 15speech and media eventsNOT ESTABLISHEDpriced right
  16. 16interest-rate decisionsNO EDGEpriced right
  17. 17weather outcomesNO EDGEsupply
  18. 18bitcoin futures basis, CMENOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  19. 19college sports, ratings modelNOT ESTABLISHEDpriced right
  20. 20esports favoritesNO EDGEqueue
  21. 21stock index levels against optionsNO EDGEpriced right
  22. 22memecoin graduations, pump.funNO EDGEpriced right
  23. 23economic data releasesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  24. 24entertainment and media rankingsNO EDGEcapacity
  25. 25entertainment and media rankingsNO EDGEpriced right
  26. 26entertainment and media rankingsNO EDGEpriced right
  27. 27economic data releasesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  28. 28economic data releasesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  29. 29entertainment and media rankingsUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  30. 30entertainment and media rankingsNO EDGEpriced rightaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  31. 31economic data releasesNOT ESTABLISHEDpriced right
  32. 32economic data releasesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  33. 33entertainment and media rankingsNOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  34. 34economic data releasesNO EDGEcapacity
  35. 35in-game sports price jumpsNOT ESTABLISHEDlook-ahead
  36. 36sports favoritesNO EDGEpriced rightaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  37. 37short-term crypto pricesNO EDGEpriced rightaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  38. 38short-term crypto prices, momentum modelNO EDGElook-aheadaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  39. 39short-term commodity pricesUNDECIDABLEblocked
  40. 40economic data releasesUNDECIDABLEneeds years
  41. 41entertainment and media rankingsNO EDGEcapacityaudit: NOT ESTABLISHED
  42. 42entertainment and media rankingsNOT ESTABLISHEDblocked
  43. 43perpetual futures fundingNOT ESTABLISHEDcapacity
  44. 44short-term commodity pricesNO EDGEpriced right

The recorded verdict stays. Where the audit's own label differs, on 6 ideas, it sits beside it: 4 of them have no result table, and for the other 2 the luck correction does not rule out a small edge.

At the audit's snapshot, 9 ideas were not closed. Each is listed here when it closes. One idea closed on 2026-10-24, after the audit's snapshot; the audit treats it as open.

fingerprints

I froze the audit's plan at 2026-10-17 20:36:10 UTC, before its two programs were written. Its result table was frozen at 2026-10-25 00:04:29 UTC, after the checker passed.

plan sha256
3b5cf4df90921400c0ca26ccb930912a63564761d5142939a0d7f93a0432e333
result table sha256
c199d65300c8852723927e3b55cd7d4e94fc03ccbbb0bca3d9c34e5d5e097226

Both files are private for now. If they are published, anyone can hash them and compare:

> shasum -a 256 PREREG.md

It must print the plan's hash above. The same command on the result table must print the second.

This page is the first public place these hashes appear, so they do not prove when the plan was written. They prove that a file published later is the one this page describes.

> ls cases