> cat futures-basis.md

Futures basis against T-bills

Hypothesis

CME bitcoin futures trade above spot. Buy spot, sell the future, hold to expiry, and the basis beats a T-bill. Cash and carry.

Test

A kill line was set, and it did not fire. It sits in a private repository, so when it was set cannot be checked from outside. But the basis was measured from trade prints, not from a book you could have traded at.

Cause of death

Blocked. The kill line not firing says the printed basis cleared the bar. It says nothing about the basis a real order would have got. The audit's check of this cause: consistent with its own record.

gateNOT ESTABLISHED

causeblocked

evidenceresult table, no interval

auditone of 53 ideas · plan frozen 2026-10-17 · luck-corrected

the numbernone printed; the kill line did not fire

the audit's checker compared 270,232 values across all 53 ideas (run 3, 2026-10-25); this case prints no number to compare

Lesson

Measure a price from a book you could have traded, not from prints.

> cat pump-graduation.md

This site is not advice and gives no signals or trade ideas.

A diagram of the trade and where it broke, not dataA diagram, not data: nothing in it is drawn to scale. Cash and carry: buy spot and sell the future, hold to expiry, and the basis beats a T-bill. A kill line was set and did not fire. The basis was measured from trade prints, through the kill line, not from a book you could have traded at, which is drawn empty. Blocked: the printed basis cleared the bar; the kill line says nothing about the basis a real order would have got.cash and carrybuy spotsell the futurehold to expirythe basis beats a T-billkill linedid not firemeasured fromnot fromtrade printsa book you could have traded atsays nothing aboutthe printed basiscleared the barthe basis a real orderwould have gotA diagram of the trade and where it broke, not dataA diagram, not data: nothing in it is drawn to scale. Cash and carry: buy spot and sell the future, hold to expiry, and the basis beats a T-bill. A kill line was set and did not fire. The basis was measured from trade prints, through the kill line, not from a book you could have traded at, which is drawn empty. Blocked: the printed basis cleared the bar; the kill line says nothing about the basis a real order would have got.buy spot → sell the future → hold to expirythe basis beats a T-billkill linedid not firemeasured fromtrade printsnot froma book you could have traded atcleared the bar

fig. 1 A diagram of the trade, not data: the case prints no number, so nothing here is drawn to scale. Above, cash and carry. Below, where the basis was measured: from trade prints, which the kill line read, not from a book you could have traded at, drawn empty.

A diagram of the trade and where it broke, not data
PartWhat the diagram shows, in the case's words
The tradeCash and carry: buy spot, sell the future, hold to expiry, and the basis beats a T-bill.
The testA kill line was set, and it did not fire.
Where the basis came fromMeasured from trade prints, not from a book you could have traded at (drawn empty).
The causeBlocked: the printed basis cleared the bar; the kill line says nothing about the basis a real order would have got.